U.S. March Core PCE Growth Rate 0%...Below Expectations, Signaling Inflation Easing

Pce Increase Trend (Source: Us Bea)

The March core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index of the United States rose by 0% compared to the previous month, falling short of market expectations. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) under the United States Department of Commerce announced on the 30th (local time) that the core PCE price index, excluding volatile energy and food items, maintained the same level as February. This is a lower figure than the 0.1% increase forecasted by market experts.

The year-on-year growth rate was 2.6%, which aligns with market consensus. Core PCE is considered the most reliable inflation indicator by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and is regarded as a key resource for determining the direction of monetary policy.

This announcement suggests that inflation pressures are somewhat easing and is likely to influence discussions on whether and when the Fed will further lower interest rates. Particularly, while the expectation of rate freezes or limited cuts has been dominant until recently, this figure is assessed to possibly support discussions on transitioning to a more accommodative stance within the Fed.