Ethereum, More Important Than Technology Is Narrative… Is Evolution Into 'Digital Treasury Bond' Possible?
The claim that Ethereum can rise to $17,000 is gaining attention again. Ryan Sean Adams, co-founder of Bankless, who first put forth this claim, believes that if Ethereum establishes a new narrative as 'interest-generating digital gold,' a market capitalization of $2 trillion is possible. However, this is not merely a numerical prediction, but also a question of whether Ethereum can overcome the identity confusion it currently faces.
This potential of Ethereum was first suggested earlier this year by an anonymous analyst named Kiu_Coin. He saw that Ethereum was following a pattern of brief declines followed by surges, similar to the past, and analyzed that the current adjustment is a process to filter out weak hands. In fact, in 2021, ETH started below $100 and surged to $4,800. What drove the rise at the time was the narrative of being 'center of the DeFi ecosystem' rather than superior technology.
In 2021, Ethereum rose as an ecosystem-central asset riding the DeFi boom. Core protocols like Uniswap, MakerDAO, and Compound operated based on ETH, and the phrase "without Ethereum, there is no DeFi" dominated the market. However, following the DeFi fatigue, Luna collapse, and NFT bubble burst, ETH gradually lost its appeal.
In this background, Ryan Adams proposed the concept of a ‘blue money gospel.’ He argued “Money is something that implements trust into code,” and ETH holders must express trust through staking and reclaim the narrative. ARK Invest, in early this year's report, also strengthened this narrative by describing ETH as “a digital bond that provides interest like U.S. Treasuries.”
Another reason Ethereum is gaining attention recently is its connection to the tokenization trend of physical assets. Global institutions like BlackRock, Citigroup, and JP Morgan are conducting experiments to tokenize U.S. treasuries and corporate bonds based on Ethereum. In addition, ETH already offers staking returns of 3–5% annually. Ethereum can be interpreted as acting as an ‘access token’ that connects profit-generating assets around the world beyond just a blockchain platform.
If such changes settle, the perception can shift from the past narrative “DeFi=Ethereum” to “profit-generating assets operate on Ethereum.” However, criticisms still exist. BTC supporters argue that ETH lacks absolute scarcity, and the ETH/BTC ratio has significantly fallen, questioning ETH's standing as an asset.
Nonetheless, the market is paying attention to Ethereum's rebound. The price, which fell to the $1,400 range in early April, has now exceeded $1,800, rising about 30%. Although it's still far from the all-time high, it's interpreted as the first signal towards the return of its narrative.
Ultimately, the path of ETH relies on narrative, not technology. Just as Bitcoin settled the narrative of ‘digital gold,’ the market awaits whether Ethereum can establish itself as ‘digital treasury.’