BTC, RSI Weak divergence · Decrease in trading volume… Signal of slowing upward momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing its recent upward trend, but there is analysis suggesting that the upward momentum is slowing down due to the simultaneous appearance of weak divergence in RSI (Relative Strength Index) and a decrease in trading volume.

According to CoinDesk, the weekly RSI indicator showed weak divergence in March, December, and May this year. This indicates that while prices are rising, the RSI is in a downward trend, suggesting a weakening of the upward trend's strength.

Additionally, trading volume has noticeably decreased after breaking through $100,000. Compared to the early stages of past upward trends, the significantly reduced trading volume is interpreted as a signal of weakened upward momentum. In particular, weekly trading volume of Bitcoin futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in the U.S. has failed to exceed 35,000 contracts for three out of the last four weeks.

Open Interest (OI) in futures also shows a discrepancy with prices. Currently, OI is 13% less than during the $109,000 surge in January, but prices remain 5.8% lower than the peak. This is noted as being similar to the trend in 2021 when Bitcoin plunged from a high of $65,000 to $28,000 within two months.

Experts warn that "even if Bitcoin reaches new highs, if current trading volume and RSI divergence are not resolved, the optimistic outlook towards $150,000 to $200,000 could be undermined by selling pressure." At the end of 2021, Bitcoin experienced over a year of a bearish market, which led to massive restructuring and corporate collapses throughout the cryptocurrency industry.

However, positive variables also exist in this cycle. There is analysis suggesting that strategy BTC acquisitions, a $6.3 billion Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem (TVL), and meme coin liquidity could inject new strength into the market.

Ultimately, for BTC to continue its additional rise, recovery in trading volume and improvement in RSI are expected to be needed. Market attention is focused on short-term correction possibilities and the sustainability of the long-term upward trend.