Analysis "Bitcoin, Full Decoupling From Us Macroeconomy Still Difficult"

Regarding the possibility of 'Bitcoin's decoupling' recently raised in some parts of the market, an analysis came out that it is still premature.

On the 9th (local time), *The Block* cited the analysis of several analysts, diagnosing that “there are signs that Bitcoin is gradually weakening its correlation with the U.S. stock market, but it is still greatly influenced by U.S. macroeconomics and global liquidity flow.”

It particularly noted the recent sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields. The 30-year rate surpassed 5%, marking the highest level since the end of 2023, explaining that this implies a contraction in demand for risky assets overall, including cryptocurrency.

The Block pointed out that “for Bitcoin to establish itself as ‘digital gold’ or an independent asset class, it must show an independent flow regardless of stock market and interest rate movements. However, it is currently still reacting sensitively to the liquidity cycle of the global financial system.”

In other words, even if there have been instances recently showing price flows different from traditional assets in the short term, it is still difficult to say that it is structurally fully decoupled.

Market experts are paying attention to how future changes in the interest rate policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the impact of tariff conflicts, and the institutionalization flow of cryptocurrency in each country will define the asset nature of BTC. The discussion of decoupling is a mid to long-term task, and currently, the prevailing analysis is that Bitcoin is still greatly influenced by liquidity and risk asset flow.