Goldman Sachs, Recession outlook withdrawn following Trump's tariff deferment announcement

Goldman Sachs retracted its previous outlook on the possibility of a U.S. recession right after President Donald Trump announced a mutual tariff suspension.

According to Walter Bloomberg on the 9th (local time), Goldman Sachs had initially adjusted its assessment that there was a 35% to 45% probability that the U.S. economy would enter a recession within the next 12 months, but retracted this outlook following President Trump's announcement of a temporary suspension of tariff measures.

This is interpreted as the market's concerns about high tariffs being fully implemented have eased, and the possibility of a short-term economic shock has significantly decreased. The tariff suspension decision is being accepted as a measure that can reduce burdens not only for investor sentiment stability but also regarding consumer prices and corporate costs.

Goldman Sachs reportedly assessed that "if the supply chain shock and consumer contraction due to tariff enforcement had materialized, the risk of recession could have increased, but this scenario has been delayed for the time being due to this measure."

The market is noting that while President Trump is using high tariffs as a 'negotiating lever,' he is responding flexibly considering the actual economic impact. However, there is still a view that uncertainty has not been completely resolved because the tariff policy can be resumed at any time.