Arthur Hayes “The more the US Treasury market instability deepens, the more favorable it is for Bitcoin”

Recently surging MOVE Index (Source: MacroMicro)

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes analyzed that the volatility of the U.S. bond market could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin.

On the 10th (local time), Hayes stated on his X account, “The moment the MOVE index, indicating the volatility of the U.S. Treasury market, exceeds 140, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has always quickly implemented stimulus measures in the past,” adding, “This pattern is likely to repeat in the future.”

He further predicted, “During past crisis situations, Bitcoin also plummeted along with the stock market, but in the next phase, Bitcoin could break away from such linkage and continue its upward trend.”

The MOVE index is called the ‘fear index’ of the bond market and is a representative indicator of the level of volatility in the Treasury market. Recently, as the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% and bond market instability is increasing, there is an interpretation that Bitcoin is showing the possibility of decoupling.

Hayes has repeatedly emphasized Bitcoin as a ‘digital liquidity haven’ amid global financial system instability, and this statement is viewed as part of that. The market is also paying attention to the correlation between the trend of the MOVE Index and Bitcoin prices.