Trump tariffs·Market turmoil, Bitcoin holding on…“This time is different”
Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan noted the resilience of Bitcoin (Source: X)
An analysis has emerged that Bitcoin is showing a different pattern in recent market adjustments compared to the past. Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hogan diagnosed, “Bitcoin is moving like an asset that wants to rise right now, but only macroeconomic factors are blocking that flow.”
In a memo sent to investors on the 16th, Hogan explained, “Bitcoin is currently trading at a level of $84,379, which is only a 0.07% rise compared to $84,317 a month ago,” and “Bitcoin has faced major issues shaking the market, from the US strategic Bitcoin stockpiling move to President Trump's all-encompassing tariff introduction, but Bitcoin is moving exactly sideways.”
He emphasized that Bitcoin is showing a different flow compared to past market adjustment periods. For example, when the S&P 500 fell 24.5% in 2022, Bitcoin plummeted 58.3%, and during the initial shock of the Covid-19 in 2020, the S&P 500 fell 33.8% and Bitcoin fell 38.1%. Also, when the US-China trade war escalated during Trump's first term in 2018, the stock market fell 19.4% and Bitcoin fell 37.2%.
In contrast, during this adjustment phase, both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin recorded a decline of about 12% each. Compared to the past, it means Bitcoin is relatively doing better. Hogan stated, “There has been no comprehensive adjustment period since 2011 where Bitcoin performed better than the stock market,” but “this time could be an exception.”
He continued, stating, “Moving similarly to stocks does not mean Bitcoin is a safe asset,” but he emphasized that the solid movement shown by Bitcoin even in the recent downturn cannot be ignored. While it's true that gold has recorded better returns in this adjustment market, the fact that Bitcoin is trading above $80,000 in itself has significant implications, he assessed.
Hogan concluded, “The world is entering chaos, but Bitcoin is still above $80,000. If this doesn’t show Bitcoin's vitality, then what does?”
His remarks suggest that Bitcoin is gradually establishing itself as a mature asset class beyond short-term price fluctuations. Investor interest is focused on what role Bitcoin, showing different resilience compared to the past, can play in the future market.