Ripple-SEC dispute, Critical juncture on the 16th...Will XRP's legal status soon be resolved?
The long-standing dispute between the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple is reaching a critical turning point starting on the 16th (local time). This day is the last day Ripple can submit a rebuttal document to the appeal, evaluated as a decisive moment for determining the future direction of the case and the legal status of XRP.
This procedure stems from an interim judgment delivered last July by Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York. At that time, the court judged that XRP directly sold by Ripple to institutional investors was a security, but automated sales to general investors through cryptocurrency exchanges were not viewed as securities. Also, XRP given in the form of employee compensation was ruled not to constitute a security.
In response, the SEC filed an appeal regarding the programmatic sales section, and since then, both sides have proceeded with the appeal procedure. However, recently the possibility of an agreement for appeal suspension and early case resolution is rapidly emerging.
Ripple's chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty announced on the 25th of last month that an agreement with the SEC had reduced the original $120 million fine to about $50 million, concluding the case. In addition, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse suggested paying the fine in XRP. He said, “We talked about paying that amount in XRP,” but it is still uncertain whether the SEC will accept this.
The legal community is giving more weight to the possibility of early resolution than the case moving to the appeal process. Fred Rispoli, a virtual asset specialist lawyer, forecasted, “The probability that Ripple will actually submit the rebuttal document is only 10%,” adding, “Most likely is a settlement or case resolution.”
If the SEC withdraws the appeal, the court will maintain the non-security judgment for XRP as is, and the Ripple case will conclude. This could set a legal standard that can be applied to crypto projects across the U.S., at the same time serving as a precedent that enhances institutional clarity.
However, if Ripple submits a rebuttal document and the SEC continues the appeal, the case will move to a higher court, making a long-term legal battle inevitable. In this situation, the legal status of XRP will fall back into uncertainty, and concerns are raised that restrictions could occur on market entry by investors and companies.
Meanwhile, the SEC recently welcomed a new head. Paul Atkins, the new commissioner nominated by President Trump, passed the Senate approval process early this month and emphasized the clarity of cryptocurrency regulations, stating, “I will ensure that the U.S. blockchain industry does not lag behind due to ambiguous legal interpretations.”
As the submission deadline on the 16th passes, the market's attention is focused on whether the dispute between the SEC and Ripple will substantively conclude or transition back into a court battle. Depending on the outcome, there is a possibility that not only the future of XRP but also the regulatory direction of the entire cryptocurrency industry in the U.S. will be determined.