"Bitcoin Goes To $200,000"…Peak Forecast For October To December, Analysis Of Entering The Latter Part Of The Upward Cycle
Bitcoin, showing a flow similar but different from past upward cycles (Source: Trading Shot)
An optimistic analysis has emerged suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of this year. On the 24th, Finbold reported this by citing a report from digital asset analyst TradingShot.
TradingShot compared Bitcoin's four past upward cycles (2009-2011, 2012-2013, 2015-2017, 2019-2021) with the current flow, and interpreted that this cycle is the weakest rise yet, but it is the result of the ‘Theory of Diminishing Returns’ (TDM) occurring as the market matures.
In the initial cycle, Bitcoin soared by thousands of percent, attracting attention as a speculative asset, but recent cycles show a decrease in rise rate, lowered volatility, and a flow similar to traditional financial markets. TradingShot analyzed that Bitcoin briefly departed from the upward channel in February 2025 but entered a recovery phase again in the past six weeks and if this flow continues, it could form a peak between October and December this year. The target range is $150,000-$200,000.
TradingShot emphasized, “What is more important than setting a target is the timing of the exit strategy,” adding that assessing the realization timing is more crucial to investment returns than the rate of increase.
Similar perspectives are shared by other veteran traders. Peter Brandt opened up the possibility that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by August 2025 based on chart structures, and cryptocurrency analyst Gert van Lagen asserted there is room for an additional increase of at least 3-6 times from the current price based on recurring technical structures such as the Cup and Handle pattern. He also mentioned that Bitcoin's price flow is not linear but has a compound interest nature.
As Bitcoin is incorporated into institutional assets and governments and institutions around the world are reorganizing related regulations, the interpretation that this bull market, while not as skyrocketing as in the past, is building on a more solid structure is gaining strength.