QCP “Bitcoin, Volatility will be low until breaking through the $100,000~$110,000 range”

Cryptocurrency trading specialized company QCP Capital recently analyzed in a research note, “Bitcoin is trapped in a range between $100,000 and $110,000, with the overall market's implied volatility (IV) remaining at a low level.”

According to the report, based on data from the past two years, Bitcoin's short-term volatility has shown a tendency to decline further until July. Indeed, the BTC volatility index, which reached 80% in March 2023, fell to the 40% level in July of the same year.

QCP stated, “Volatility and liquidity can revive when Bitcoin falls below $100,000 or strongly breaks through $110,000,” but added, “Currently, there is an absence of a catalyst presenting a clear direction.”

This indicates that option market participants also see low potential for sharp short-term price fluctuations, and strategically prefer a volatility selling strategy (Short Vol) over a Long Volatility position.

QCP forecasts that “trading strategies within the box range are likely to be the main focus until this summer season, rather than directional strategies.”