Bitcoin, Catching breath before 112,000 Dollar resistance line... Market attention on Powell's remarks

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, who focuses on Market Stability (Source: Federal Reserve)

Bitcoin is showing a downward trend again as it fails to exceed the $112,000 resistance line. As of 11:34 PM on the 17th, Bitcoin was traded at $105,330 on Binance. Recent attempts to break through the $112,000 level have all been thwarted. Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for the 18th, investors are paying more attention to Chairman Powell's remarks than the interest rate announcement.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the interest rate will remain at the current level of 4.25~4.50% at this meeting is 99.9%. In fact, the market has already taken the interest rate freeze as a given, and the focus is on what tone Chairman Powell will show. With President Donald Trump openly demanding rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, if Powell shows a dovish stance, it could be a significant stimulus to the market.

Swissblock predicted that "If Powell shows a dovish stance, it will be a strong driving force for Bitcoin bullish traders" and "If geopolitical instability eases, short positions can be liquidated leading to a surge." They also mentioned that Bitcoin funding rates have turned negative after recent tensions between Israel and Iran, interpreting this as an indication of excessive short positions.

From a technical perspective, the market is expecting a short-term surge if it breaks through the $112,000 level and turns it into a support line. To achieve this, it must first recover $108,000 and break through the $109,000-110,500 supply zone. Conversely, on the downside, the $104,000-102,800 range overlaps with the 50-day moving average, acting as a major defense line. $100,000, $95,800, and $94,600 are perceived as psychological and technical support levels, respectively.

Institutional investors' buying pressure continues. QCP announced, "Major institutions such as Metaplanet and Strategy have been receiving inflows of cash ETF funds for seven consecutive weeks," and analyzed that "With the defense of the $100,000 level, the market is regaining stability."

The liquidation heatmap indicates that a large amount of liquidity is concentrated at the $112,000 level, and if this price is exceeded, a short-term surge to $114,000 is possible. On the downside, the $100,000 and $92,000~93,000 ranges, which have accumulated strong buying zones, can act as a boundary for a short-term fall if the support is broken.