Bitcoin, Even amid the Middle East crisis, remains steady…The next variables are ‘Trump Tariffs’ and Fed meeting

Bitcoin's summer course depending on Trump and Powell (Source: FT)

Even in a situation where tensions in the Middle East are rising, Bitcoin is maintaining a noticeable stability. Despite the geopolitical risk of an armed conflict between Israel and Iran, the price has not plummeted and is rather seeking a new direction depending on future schedules.

According to Coinpost reports, Andrei Dragos, head of research at Bitwise Europe, analyzed that Bitcoin's 60-day realized volatility has decreased to a level of 27~28%. This is lower than major American stock indices such as the S&P500, Nasdaq100, and Magnificent7, and compared to the time when it exceeded 60% at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, it can be seen as a fairly stable trend. Experts cite the continuous expansion of Bitcoin holdings by listed companies as the background for such stability.

However, intrinsic volatility is rising in the short term. Shaun Dawson of Derib mentioned in an interview with Theblock that "the volatility market is still signaling that there are risks remaining." In fact, Bitcoin's short-term volatility has risen to 45%, and Ethereum has reached as much as 83%.

While Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz caused temporary psychological pressure, evaluations say the actual possibility of blockade is low. QCP Capital saw the possibility of an imminent blockade as low, and Nick Fakhrin of Coinbureau mentioned that "blocking the Strait of Hormuz is Tehran, Iran's economic suicide," explaining that the rational response of market participants led to Bitcoin's rebound.

Valentin Fournier, chief analyst at BRN, diagnosed that while the short-term risk aversion sentiment has increased, structural demand has rather strengthened. He positively assessed Bitcoin's resilience and added that Solana's dominance in the market could be possible in this recovery phase.

The market is now focusing on two major variables. One is the expiration of the tariff deferment measure scheduled for July 9th by Donald Trump, the President of the United States, and the other is the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting scheduled for July 30th. With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell maintaining a hawkish stance recently, the market currently expects a freeze on interest rates, but there is also a possibility of significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market once again if it coincides with the Middle Eastern situation.