Bitcoin, Will the halving effect catch fire... Third quarter forecast of up to 160,000 dollars

Bitcoin is entering the third quarter of 2025, heralding another significant upward trend. Amid expectations that the halving effect, which was repeated in past cycles, could again drive the market, a scenario of an increase to a maximum of $160,000 has been proposed.

According to NewsBTC on June 29 (local time), cryptocurrency market analyst Luca said, “Bitcoin has shown a strong rally in the third quarter of the year after the halving,” and analyzed that “there is a high possibility that this trend will be repeated in 2025.”

He based his analysis on past data. In the year after the 2013 halving, Bitcoin, which was under $100 in July, exceeded $680 in November, and in 2017, it started at $2,800 and surpassed $16,000 by the end of the year. In 2021, it started at $39,000 and recorded an all-time high of $69,000 in November. This explains that the third quarter of the year after the halving has been a turning point for an upward trend.

Recently, Bitcoin has been undergoing corrections, falling below $100,000, but Luca interpreted this as a “trend adjustment period before an uptrend.” He emphasized that “temporary declines may be a healthy correction in a bull market,” and that the overall market structure is still on an upward trajectory.

From a technical analysis perspective, he also predicted that the peak of the next upward cycle could be in the range of $140,000 to $160,000 by using Fibonacci expansion ratios. This implies an upward potential of approximately 30% to 49% compared to the current price. Luca added, “This price range could be realized by the end of the third quarter of 2025 at the earliest.”

The market is focusing on whether Bitcoin will once again replicate the bullish cycle after the halving. Experts advise that it could be a strategic buying zone for long-term investors now, as the market trend in the coming months is expected to be a crucial watershed.