Tariff pressure from Trump, Signs of price rebound in June in the US... Concerns over the Fed's interest rate cut 'block'

Trump's tariff policy, whose impact is still difficult to determine (Source: NBC News)

As the effects of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy begin to take shape, the possibility of a rebound in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June is being raised. According to Bloomberg's report on the 12th (local time), as companies begin to pass on the increased import costs to consumer prices, an upward trend in prices is being detected.

According to a survey of economists, the core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0.3% from the previous month, marking the highest monthly increase since January. On an annual basis, the core inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.9%, showing a rebound trend for the first time this year. This suggests that tariffs on some imports are indeed affecting consumer prices.

June retail sales are expected to have shown a sluggish trend, which could exert downward pressure on the second-quarter GDP growth outlook, along with the limitation of consumer capacity.

President Trump recently announced a high tariff of 30% on major trading partners such as the European Union (EU), Canada, Mexico, and Brazil, starting from August, further expanding the trade conflict. This is likely to exert pressure on the global supply chain as well as price instability in the future.

However, experts believe that due to the slowdown in the employment market limiting consumer capacity, distributors cannot help but be cautious about increasing prices. Consequently, price increases are likely to appear gradually over several months rather than being concentrated in the short term.

The global market is also paying close attention to the trend of inflation driven by tariffs. Central banks in various countries are expected to adjust monetary policy in consideration of the potential for price stimulation due to trade tensions. Canada is keeping a close watch on the CPI ahead of its July 30 interest rate decision, and China will evaluate the impact of tariffs through this week's GDP and trade data.

The Federal Reserve is still maintaining a cautious stance on cutting interest rates. As the risk of price increases is becoming a reality, the view that the timing of the transition of monetary policy may be postponed at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on July 29~30 is gaining strength.